Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
